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OUT_03044

Hotel · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
63.8 L
Recent monthly avg
9.3 L
Own Q90
30.5 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
20
HHI (1.5 km)
1,235
Replenishment friction
41.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +3.6 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +3.6 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +5.8
  • monthly_cv
    +1.5
  • food_pairing_score_norm
    +1.5
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +1.3
  • competitors_1km
    +1.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.8
  • monthly_volume_std
    -24.0
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+3.6 L / mo
base 65.3 L → after 68.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 65.3 L → after 65.3 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 59

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.