All outlets

OUT_03007

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
78.5 L
Recent monthly avg
21.0 L
Own Q90
60.9 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
1,041
Replenishment friction
9.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +20.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~20.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +1.1 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 21.2 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 1.0 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.8
  • Latitude
    +2.6
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.2
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +2.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 101.0 L → after 101.0 L
Remove competitive drag+2.6 L / mo
base 101.0 L → after 103.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 92

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.