All outlets

OUT_02731

Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
219.0 L
Recent monthly avg
105.5 L
Own Q90
219.5 L
Active months
25 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
1,348
Replenishment friction
24.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +27.5
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +15.5
  • Province_Western
    +6.3
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +2.0
  • competitors_2km
    +1.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -55.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.7
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -12.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 218.5 L → after 218.5 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 218.5 L → after 218.5 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 286

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.