All outlets

OUT_01594

Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
218.4 L
Recent monthly avg
101.1 L
Own Q90
227.3 L
Active months
27 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
15
HHI (1.5 km)
704
Replenishment friction
33.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +42.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~42.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +27.2
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +15.9
  • Province_Western
    +6.3
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +2.1
  • competitors_2km
    +1.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -56.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.2
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -13.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 214.7 L → after 214.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 214.7 L → after 214.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 271

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.