All outlets

OUT_01218

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
226.5 L
Recent monthly avg
132.6 L
Own Q90
222.9 L
Active months
30 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
14
HHI (1.5 km)
736
Replenishment friction
13.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +327.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +327.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +31.8
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.6
  • Province_Western
    +5.7
  • mid_share
    +2.9
  • mass_share
    +2.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.2
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -15.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+327.8 L / mo
base 216.3 L → after 544.1 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 216.3 L → after 216.3 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 140

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
327.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,216
Payback
5.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 146,978

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.