All outlets

OUT_00930

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
226.1 L
Recent monthly avg
95.3 L
Own Q90
187.2 L
Active months
25 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
12
HHI (1.5 km)
1,118
Replenishment friction
24.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +309.6 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +309.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +31.3
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.5
  • Province_Western
    +5.6
  • Outlet_Type_Grocery
    +1.6
  • mid_share
    +1.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.2
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -13.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+309.5 L / mo
base 217.1 L → after 526.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 217.1 L → after 217.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 246

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
309.5 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,913
Payback
5.0 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 161,865

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.