All outlets

OUT_00898

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
83.4 L
Recent monthly avg
15.6 L
Own Q90
45.9 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
13
HHI (1.5 km)
1,942
Replenishment friction
13.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +17.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~17.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +2.8 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 9.3% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.6%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~2.8 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.3
  • Latitude
    +3.1
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.1
  • mass_share
    +1.9
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -24.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 89.2 L → after 89.2 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 89.2 L → after 89.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 90

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.