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OUT_00819

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
70.6 L
Recent monthly avg
11.2 L
Own Q90
38.5 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
17
HHI (1.5 km)
754
Replenishment friction
50.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.4
  • Latitude
    +3.4
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +2.8
  • monthly_cv
    +2.4
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +1.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -26.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.8 L / mo
base 80.2 L → after 81.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 80.2 L → after 80.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 103

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.