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OUT_00685

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
74.1 L
Recent monthly avg
17.4 L
Own Q90
42.7 L
Active months
19 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
10
HHI (1.5 km)
1,706
Replenishment friction
36.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +6.1
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.9
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +1.0
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.7
  • Latitude
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 71.4 L → after 71.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 71.4 L → after 71.4 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 108

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.