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OUT_00419

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
69.2 L
Recent monthly avg
10.4 L
Own Q90
31.1 L
Active months
11 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
20
HHI (1.5 km)
931
Replenishment friction
18.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.4 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.4 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +5.8
  • monthly_cv
    +3.5
  • competitors_2km
    +2.9
  • same_type_competitors_1km
    +2.2
  • competitors_1km
    +1.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.2
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.7
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.4 L / mo
base 67.8 L → after 68.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 67.8 L → after 67.8 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 98

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.