All outlets

OUT_00382

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
403.6 L
Recent monthly avg
427.1 L
Own Q90
645.0 L
Active months
31 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
1,041
Replenishment friction
9.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +77.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~77.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +226.2
  • monthly_volume_std
    +58.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +57.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    +48.1
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +7.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -133.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -97.6
  • Cooler_Count
    -52.1
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -23.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -21.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 389.3 L → after 389.3 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 389.3 L → after 389.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.