All outlets

OUT_00378

Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
518.7 L
Recent monthly avg
437.1 L
Own Q90
733.4 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
20
HHI (1.5 km)
640
Replenishment friction
20.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +104.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~104.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +0.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +234.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +83.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    +64.7
  • monthly_volume_median
    +44.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +16.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -127.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -85.0
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -21.1
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    -13.9
  • Province_Southern
    -1.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.3 L / mo
base 523.5 L → after 523.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 523.5 L → after 523.5 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 84

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.