All outlets

OUT_00372

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
321.1 L
Recent monthly avg
440.7 L
Own Q90
707.9 L
Active months
32 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
866
Replenishment friction
6.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +131.7 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +131.7 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +67.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~67.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +224.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +67.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    +59.9
  • monthly_volume_median
    +47.8
  • Province_Western
    +4.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -137.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -114.4
  • Cooler_Count
    -54.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.3
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -23.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+131.7 L / mo
base 338.1 L → after 469.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 338.1 L → after 338.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
131.7 L
Monthly margin
LKR 4,090
Payback
12.2 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 37,407

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.