All outlets

OUT_00355

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
295.5 L
Recent monthly avg
495.9 L
Own Q90
781.4 L
Active months
33 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
1,495
Replenishment friction
6.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +69.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~69.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.8 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 16.7 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.8 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +227.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +69.8
  • monthly_volume_std
    +57.9
  • monthly_volume_median
    +45.3
  • Province_Western
    +6.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -138.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -112.2
  • Cooler_Count
    -53.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -28.2
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -23.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 348.2 L → after 348.2 L
Remove competitive drag+1.9 L / mo
base 348.2 L → after 350.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.