All outlets

OUT_00304

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
392.7 L
Recent monthly avg
433.0 L
Own Q90
700.0 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
600
Replenishment friction
17.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +76.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~76.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.6 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.6 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +223.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    +61.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +47.8
  • monthly_volume_median
    +46.5
  • Province_Western
    +5.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -133.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -99.4
  • Cooler_Count
    -52.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.5
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -23.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.6 L / mo
base 380.2 L → after 380.8 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 380.2 L → after 380.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.