All outlets

OUT_00284

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
446.1 L
Recent monthly avg
479.1 L
Own Q90
674.1 L
Active months
34 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
17
HHI (1.5 km)
920
Replenishment friction
5.9%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +86.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~86.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +27.1 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +27.1 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +215.7
  • monthly_volume_std
    +52.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +42.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    +40.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +21.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -128.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -87.5
  • Cooler_Count
    -26.5
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -22.2
  • Province_Southern
    -1.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+27.1 L / mo
base 432.3 L → after 459.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 432.3 L → after 432.3 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
27.1 L
Monthly margin
LKR 880
Payback
56.8 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -31,188

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.