All outlets

OUT_00243

Pharmacy · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
320.5 L
Recent monthly avg
435.6 L
Own Q90
656.6 L
Active months
30 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
15
HHI (1.5 km)
1,134
Replenishment friction
20.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +124.5 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +124.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +72.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~72.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +225.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +70.6
  • monthly_volume_std
    +59.3
  • monthly_volume_median
    +47.6
  • Province_Western
    +6.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -136.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -107.7
  • Cooler_Count
    -52.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -26.8
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -23.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+124.5 L / mo
base 362.0 L → after 486.5 L
Remove competitive drag+0.6 L / mo
base 362.0 L → after 362.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
124.5 L
Monthly margin
LKR 3,895
Payback
12.8 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 33,249

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.