All outlets

OUT_00145

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
499.2 L
Recent monthly avg
407.1 L
Own Q90
658.4 L
Active months
28 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
11
HHI (1.5 km)
1,359
Replenishment friction
17.9%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +99.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~99.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +22.6 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +22.6 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +220.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +75.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    +65.7
  • monthly_volume_median
    +41.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +22.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -130.8
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -89.4
  • Cooler_Count
    -25.2
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -21.8
  • Latitude
    -2.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+22.6 L / mo
base 499.0 L → after 521.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 499.0 L → after 499.0 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 176

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
22.6 L
Monthly margin
LKR 710
Payback
70.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -34,821

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.