All outlets

OUT_00115

Kiosk · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
384.0 L
Recent monthly avg
401.1 L
Own Q90
654.0 L
Active months
31 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
12
HHI (1.5 km)
1,358
Replenishment friction
3.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +121.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +121.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +72.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~72.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +223.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    +59.2
  • monthly_volume_median
    +48.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +43.0
  • Province_Western
    +5.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -132.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -97.2
  • Cooler_Count
    -51.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.6
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -21.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+121.8 L / mo
base 362.2 L → after 483.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 362.2 L → after 362.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 0

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
121.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 4,001
Payback
12.5 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 35,505

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.