All outlets

OUT_00026

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
494.9 L
Recent monthly avg
356.5 L
Own Q90
726.4 L
Active months
27 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
18
HHI (1.5 km)
1,021
Replenishment friction
11.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +97.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~97.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +16.4 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +16.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +179.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +78.6
  • monthly_volume_std
    +69.9
  • monthly_volume_median
    +42.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +28.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -116.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -82.5
  • Cooler_Count
    -22.6
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -18.7
  • jan_mean
    -2.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+16.3 L / mo
base 489.7 L → after 506.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 489.7 L → after 489.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 415

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
16.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 525
Payback
95.2 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -38,777

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.