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OUT_00010

Eatery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
352.6 L
Recent monthly avg
339.9 L
Own Q90
681.7 L
Active months
25 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
21
HHI (1.5 km)
977
Replenishment friction
8.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +67.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~66.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +3.5 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +3.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +179.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    +64.3
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +64.1
  • monthly_volume_median
    +47.5
  • Province_Western
    +4.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -122.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -95.8
  • Cooler_Count
    -51.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -29.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -20.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+3.5 L / mo
base 334.7 L → after 338.2 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 334.7 L → after 334.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 5

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.